← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Water FractalTier 2
at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 52.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 42.0% | -3.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.1% | -14.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.5% | -20.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |